STV poll: SNP at 52% as Labour faces general election annihilation

The Ipsos Mori poll shows Labour would get 24% of the vote, leaving them with just four Scottish MPs.

Poll result January 21 2015 Current and projected constituencies
May2015.com

Scottish Labour still face political annihilation in the general election as Jim Murphy fails to make an impact on voters, according to a poll commissioned by STV.

The Ipsos Mori survey shows the party would poll 24% of the Scottish vote, just 1% better than in a previous STV poll in October.

It would leave them with just four seats in Scotland; Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill.

Support for the SNP remains at 52% since October’s survey, giving them a projected 55 seats at Westminster.

The poll shows both the Liberal Democrats and Conservative party would be left without any Scottish MPs.

The full breakdown of STV’s Ipsos Mori poll is SNP 52%, Scottish Labour 24%, Scottish Conservative 12%, Liberal Democrats 4%, Scottish Green Party 4%, Ukip 1% and 2% for others.

These figures see support for both the Lib Dems and Green party drop 2% since STV’s October poll. The Conservative support has risen 2%. Ukip see their share of the vote drop by 1%.

Vote Share from poll January 21 2015

The 1001 participants were surveyed between January 12 and 19 and asked how they would vote if there was a general election tomorrow.

At the 2010 general election, Labour received 42% of the Scottish vote and the SNP 19.9%.

SNP depute leader Stewart Hosie MP said: "This is another very encouraging poll - with a 28-point SNP lead for May's Westminster election, this shows remarkable levels of support for the only party that will always put the interests of the people of Scotland front and centre."

He added: "It's clear that there is widespread support for the greatest possible devolution of powers to Holyrood. But the Westminster Government simply isn't willing to give Scotland the powers we need to build a more equal society and more competitive economy - and that is why we need a strong team of SNP MPs elected next May to hold them to account, and ensure that they finally deliver on their vow to Scotland."

Wednesday’s figures, which exclude those who do not know how they would vote, would dramatically reduce Labour's 40 Scottish MPs, according to seat predictor electoralcalculus.co.uk.

Those who would lose their seat include Jim Murphy, who took over as the leader of Scottish Labour since STV's last poll.

All of the current Liberal Democrat seats would be lost, including Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael, Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy.

A Scottish Liberal Democrat spokeswoman said: "These national polls do not reflect the performance of each of our excellent MPs in their seats. People were writing us off in 1999 and then in 2007. Each time we grew stronger.

"We have been gaining a good response when we have been campaigning for our local MPs. The SNP put local services at risk when they took their eye off the ball on day-to-day issues in order to concentrate on their campaign for independence. People know that our record of action in Government shows that only the Liberal Democrats can be trusted with both a strong economy and a fair society."

A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: "Polls will show a range of outcomes between now and May - the important thing is we continue to point out that the only way to ensure the future or the union and stability of the economy is to vote for the Scottish Conservatives."

STV political editor Bernard Ponsonby said: "This poll could be laughed away by Scottish Labour if it was not part of an unmistakable pattern suggesting that the party has big problems. These figures translated into seats would see Labour win only four constituencies with the SNP winning a landslide 55 seats.

"Wise heads in both parties will know that a lot can change in politics and quickly. When a general election is called there is a sense in which the Scottish dimension in politics tends to get lost by the focus on who will govern the UK as a whole.

"Worryingly for Labour, there is no evidence at the moment that voters are looking beyond the domestic agenda. That gives the SNP a real window of opportunity. Jim Murphy will be concerned but not panic stricken by these findings. It underlines for him the scale of the challenge he faces.

"Senior SNP figures will be buoyed but I suspect that they don’t actually believe they will win 55 seats in May. That said, the prospect of the SNP holding the balance of power in a UK context cannot be dismissed as the stuff of fun and fantasy."

Scotland Tonight will be hosting a full analysis on the poll findings by STV political editor Bernard Ponsonby and Ipsos Mori research director Mark Diffley on STV at 10:30pm.

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