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STV election poll: SNP to hold 50 seats amid Tory gains

Survey by Ipsos MORI also shows drop in support for Scottish independence.

Poll: Approval ratings for Davidson and Sturgeon were also recorded.
Poll: Approval ratings for Davidson and Sturgeon were also recorded. SWNS

The SNP are set to hold 50 seats in the general election with the Conservatives gaining six from them, according to a new poll by STV.

Data of those certain to vote, compiled by Ipsos MORI, gives the SNP 43% of the vote, falling from their high of 50% at the 2015 Westminster election.

It suggests the Conservatives will gain around 6% to tie them with Scottish Labour on 25% of the vote, with the Liberal Democrats on 5%.

The survey shows support for Scottish independence has dropped since a previous poll in March this year.

Approval ratings for the party leaders signal Prime Minister Theresa May being more unpopular than UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a higher satisfaction rating than First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the survey.

The poll was carried out ahead of the general election next Thursday June 8.

STV general election 2017 poll by Ipsos Mori, projected seats
STV
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1382623-stv-poll-half-of-scots-would-vote-for-independence/ | default

When the figures are put through the Electoral Calculus website, it suggests the Tories are set to gain six seats from the SNP, taking their total to seven. 

The Nationalists are on course to hold on to 50 of the 56 seats they took in 2015.

Labour are predicted to hold their one seat, while the Lib Dems are also on course to keep their seat.

Support for Scottish independence has dropped compared to a previous poll for STV on the subject in March this year - which split the vote 50:50.

According to Wednesday's survey, 47% of those certain to vote who expressed a preference think Scotland should be an independent country compared to 53% who are against it. In 2014's Scottish independence referendum, 45% voted Yes and 55% backed No.

STV poll general election 2017 by Ipsos Mori shows voting intentions
STV
Ratings: Voters were asked how they rated Corbyn and May.
Ratings: Voters were asked how they rated Corbyn and May. SWNS

When asked to choose the "most capable Prime Minister" between May and Corbyn, 42% of respondents backed the Tory leader compared to 40% who said the Labour leader.

Half of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the way Sturgeon is doing her job as First Minister, while 46% stated they were satisfied with her performance.

Only 33% stated they were satisfied with the way May is performing as Prime Minister, compared to 59% who said they were dissatisfied with how she has fulfilled her role.

May received a satisfaction rating of -27, which showed a fall of 43 points from the last leader approval ratings carried out by Ipsos MORI in September last year, when she reached +16.

Sturgeon recorded a rating of -4, a fall of 18 from 14 last year, when respondents were asked about how satisfied they were with her performance as First Minister.

STV poll on support for independence ahead of general election 2017
STV
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1367060-poll-ruth-davidson-more-popular-with-scots-than-sturgeon/ | default

UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn polled -13, an increase of 13 from -26 last September, showing his popularity in Scotland has increased over the period.

Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a satisfaction rating of +5, down 26 points from a high of +31.

Satisfaction with Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has increased with a -2 satisfaction rating, compared to -10 in the previous poll.

Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie got +6 and Scottish Green Party co-convener Patrick Harvie received +12 in the survey.

The Scottish opinion monitor took place between May 22 and 27 with 1016 members of the public over the age of 18 taking part.

Vote: Poll carried out ahead of general election.
Vote: Poll carried out ahead of general election.

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