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Leak: No deal Brexit would cut Scotland's growth by 9%

Latest leak of UK Government's Brexit papers reveals regional breakdown figures.

Theresa May: Her government's own analysis has been leaked again.
Theresa May: Her government's own analysis has been leaked again. PA

A no-deal Brexit scenario would result in Scotland suffering a 9% hit to its economic growth, according to the UK Government's own leaked analysis.

The latest leak of the UK Government's Brexit papers reveals Whitehall's economic assessment of various scenarios broken down by region.

In the event that Scotland stays in the single market and customs union, it would lose an estimated 2.5% more of its GDP than currently projected.

If the UK negotiates a free trade agreement with the EU prior to leaving, Scotland can expect a 6% cut to projected GDP growth.

However, if there is a no-deal Brexit, the UK Government's assessment of a 9% drop in growth is even more severe than the Scottish Government's analysis, released last month, of 8.5%.

The SNP government's January report found that a no-deal Brexit would cost the Scottish economy almost £13bn a year by 2030.

In the wake of the Scottish Government publishing its analysis, UK ministers accused it of "trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum".

The Scottish Conservatives accused SNP ministers at the time of "completely over-the-top scaremongering".

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1406216-sturgeon-hard-brexit-to-cost-scots-economy-12-7bn-a-year/ | default

The Scottish Government's analysis predicted the effects of Brexit with a free trade agreement would be a 6.1% decrease in projected GDP - nearly identical to the UK analysis.

Likewise, it said a Brexit deal which maintained single market and customs union membership would cost 2.7% of Scotland's growth, fractionally higher than Whitehall's assessment.

The leaked UK figures also suggest the impact of Brexit could be even worse on other parts of the UK, with a no-deal scenario projected to cut the north-east of England's economic growth by 16%.

In the West Midlands there could be a 13% decline in GDP growth, while Northern Ireland could suffer a 12% fall.

For the UK as a whole, the GDP figures are 2% in the event of single market and customs union membership; 5% in the event of a trade deal; and 8% if there is no deal.

The SNP described the documents, now available to MPs in the House of Commons library, as "utterly grim reading" and demanded Theresa May's government publishes its Brexit papers in full.

Impact assessment: 'Utterly grim reading', says SNP.
Impact assessment: 'Utterly grim reading', says SNP.
"People did not vote to make themselves poorer and should have the right to reject a bad deal on Brexit."
Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie

SNP MP Peter Grant said: "The leaked UK government's internal Brexit analysis makes for utterly grim reading, and Theresa May must now end the shameful secrecy surrounding the UK government's Brexit plans and publish the papers in full - which we now know will have catastrophic consequences for Scotland and the UK's economy.

"The Tories must now explain why they accused the Scottish Government of scaremongering when their own government was covering up similar findings.

"The leak underlines the case that remaining in the single market and customs union is the only way to minimize that economic harm.

"It's time Theresa May stood up to the Brexit hardliners and started putting jobs and living standards first."

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: "The government's own research is now showing that Brexit will be an economic disaster for every part of the UK. We need to stop Brexit before it is too late.

"The Conservatives are putting the public in the firing line because they are hell bent on Brexit.

"People did not vote to make themselves poorer and should have the right to reject a bad deal on Brexit."

A UK Government spokesman said: "This document does not represent Government policy and does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations.

"As Ministers clearly set out in the House, this is provisional internal analysis, part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in progress.

"We are seeking an unprecedented, comprehensive and ambitious economic partnership - one that works for all parts of the UK. We are not expecting a no deal scenario."

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