• MySTV

UK Government: All versions of Brexit will make us poorer

The new official figures come as Theresa May visits Scotland in a bid to sell her deal.

Treasury: No-deal Brexit would be 8% hit to Scotland's GDP.
Treasury: No-deal Brexit would be 8% hit to Scotland's GDP. PA

All scenarios of Brexit will make the UK poorer, according to new analysis by the UK Government.

Withdrawal from the EU under the proposed deal could cut Britain's GDP by up to 3.9% over the next 15 years, according to official figures.

If the UK was crash out of the European Union with no deal, it could deliver a 9.3% hit to economic growth over the same period.

The analysis concluded the UK would be poorer in economic terms under any version of Brexit compared with staying in the EU.

Even were Theresa May to pass her deal and then secure everything she wants in future trade negotiations, it would still represent a 2.5% hit to GDP, the study suggests.

The document also modelled the potential impact of these scenarios Scotland's economy, finding similar figures to the UK estimates, with a 2% cost to Scottish growth in May's best-case scenario and an 8% hit predicted if there is no deal.

It comes as the Prime Minister visits Scotland later on Wednesday in a bid to sell the agreement her negotiators struck with Europe this month.

The crucial "meaningful vote" on her plan in the House of Commons will take place on December 11 after five days of debate.

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1433245-may-to-make-case-for-brexit-agreement-in-glasgow-visit/ | default

The 83-page analysis was drawn up by officials from Whitehall departments including the Treasury, the Department for Exiting the EU, Industry, Environment, International Trade and the Home Office.

The document does not attempt an exact forecast on the impact of May's deal, but compares it with the alternative scenarios of Norway-style membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU and a no-deal Brexit.

It finds that GDP in all cases will be reduced if migration from Europe falls from its current levels.

Potential outcomes range from a 0.6% reduction if the final deal involves frictionless trade and unchanged migration levels to 9.3% if a no-deal Brexit reduces net immigration by EU workers to zero.

National income would be an estimated 1.4% lower with EEA membership and 4.9% with a Canada-style deal if migration levels remained the same, the analysis indicates.

Were net migration to be cut to zero under a Canada-style deal, the hit to growth would be around 6.7%.

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1433249-ineos-boss-hails-prime-minister-s-brexit-agreement/ | default

Chancellor Philip Hammond acknowledged that all possible Brexit options will make Britain worse off "purely in an economic sense".

He told the BBC the outcome of the Prime Minister's preferred Brexit plan will be a "slightly smaller" economy over the next 15 years.

But he insisted her plan will "minimise" the economic damage by reducing the barriers to trade that would arise with a hard or no-deal Brexit.

The SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford challenged May on the analysis at Prime Minister's Questions prior to her departure for Scotland.

He said: "Quite clearly, under any scenario, leaving the single market and the customs union we'll be poorer.

"The Prime Minister wants to take us back to the days of Thatcher and a belief that unemployment is a price worth paying, that's the reality.

"No government should choose to weaken its economy and make its citizens poorer, that's what the Prime Minister is doing."

https://stv.tv/news/north/1433256-just-5-of-oil-and-gas-firms-think-brexit-will-be-positive/ | default

Blackford added: "People in Scotland voted overwhelming to Remain, we voted for our rights to be respected and we are not prepared to give up those rights.

"The Prime Minister must explain to the people of Scotland why her deal will rob them of their rights as EU citizens."

May replied: "What the analysis shows is that this is a strong economy that will continue to grow and that the model which actually delivers best on delivering for the vote of the British people and for our jobs and our economy is the model that the Government has put forward."

She added: "He talks about what the people of Scotland voted for, they voted to stay in the United Kingdom and they voted for 13 Conservative MPs."

The UK Government paper comes only a day after the Scottish Government published its own study of the Brexit deal.

The analysis suggests the Prime Minister's proposed agreement could cost the equivalent of £1600 for each person in Scotland by 2030 compared to remaining in the EU.

Download: The STV News app is Scotland's favourite and is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from Google Play. Download it today and continue to enjoy STV News wherever you are.

One account. All of STV.

This field is required. That doesn't look like a valid e-mail format, please check. That e-mail's already in our system. Please try again.
Forgot password?
This field is required. This must be at least 6 characters long. Did you enter your details correctly?
If you've forgotten your details then use the 'Forgot password?' link.
Need to reset your password?

We'll send a link to reset your password to

We've sent you details on how to reset your password

Please check your email and follow the instructions.

Forgotten your email address?

Have you forgotten the email address that you previously joined with? Don't worry, by emailing enquiries@stv.tv we can help.

One account. All of STV.

This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This must be at least 6 characters long.
This field is required. This must be at least 6 characters long.
You must be over 16 to join STV.
This field is required. This doesn't appear to be a valid date
We need this to check that you live in an STV region.
This field is required. This doesn't appear to be a valid postcode
Would you like us to email you about our great shows and services from time to time?
We'll only send emails we think you'll like (see example) based on information you have supplied and shows you have watched on STV Player. For details on emails and advertising, see our STV & You page.
Would you like to receive emails from the Scottish Children's Lottery about draws, instant games and competitions?
We support the Scottish Children's Lottery (SCL), which is managed by our colleagues at STV ELM Ltd. You can find out more about the SCL on its website, including its Privacy Policy.

By continuing you agree to our Terms of Use, and understand our Privacy and Cookie Policies.

Upload Profile Picture

Please make sure your image is under 2mb in size and a valid JPG, PNG or GIF.

Are you sure?

Unfortunately, you'll be unable to access our premium content. We’ll be sorry to see you go, but if you change your mind you can rejoin us at any time.

Please verify your STV account

Please verify your STV account using the email we sent you. If you have lost the email, we can send you another one, just click the button below.


We've sent you a new verification email.
Please check your email and follow the instructions to verify your account.

Welcome to STV
Thanks for joining us.


Sorry, you must be at least 12 years old to place a vote for your Real Hero.

Please review our Voting Terms of Use for more information.


Sorry! It seems that you are using a browser that is incompatible with our voting service.

To register your vote please copy the below URL in to your regular mobile browser. We recommend Google Chrome, or Safari.



Sorry, you seem to have already voted in this category.

Thanks for voting

Now share your vote with friends on your social network

Share on twitter Share on facebook

Cast your vote

Please register or sign in to continue.

Cast your vote

This field is required. This doesn't appear to be a valid date

Cast your vote

Please fill out this form to cast your vote. As you are under 16 years old you will not create an STV account. Why do we need these details?

This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This field is required. That doesn't look like a valid e-mail format, please check.
Location This field is required.
Parental Consent This field is required.

That's you. All that's left is to click the 'Submit Vote' button below. By doing so, you confirm that you and your parent or guardian have read and accept our Voting Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Cookie policy, and that the details you have entered are correct. We'll look after them as carefully as if they were our own.