• MySTV

STV poll: SNP on course for election landslide in Scotland

An Ipsos MORI survey found 44% of voters will pick Nicola Sturgeon's party on December 12.

SNP: Support for independence at 50%, according to STV poll.
SNP: Support for independence at 50%, according to STV poll. Getty

The SNP are set to make major gains in next month's general election, an STV News poll has found, with the party surging at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives.

An Ipsos MORI survey for STV gives Nicola Sturgeon's party an 18-point lead over their nearest rival, the Conservatives - on 44% to the Tories' 26%.

With two weeks to go until December 12, it is the largest lead given to the SNP in any Scottish poll since the campaign proper began.

The Ipsos MORI poll draws a stark contrast among Scottish voters compared to the rest of the UK, suggesting the Tories could lose half their Scottish seats next month even as they seemingly cruise toward an overall majority UK government.

A YouGov poll released earlier this week suggests Boris Johnson's party are heading for a comfortable majority that will allow them to break the parliamentary logjam created by the last election's hung parliament.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said the pollster's findings were "positive news" for Nicola Sturgeon.

But she cautioned that the "key issue" for the SNP remains ensuring their voters come out on polling day.

Voting intention Westminster STV poll November 28 2019.
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1442756-ponsonby-is-stv-poll-a-warning-of-a-constitutional-crisis/ | default

Labour is sitting in a distant third among those polled for STV News, with just 16% of voters in Scotland saying they will vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party, while 11% of respondents indicated they will vote Liberal Democrat.

According to Electoral Calculus, if these results were replicated on election day, the SNP could pick up an additional 13 seats, reaching the party's second highest ever total of 48.

However, the Conservatives would slip from 13 to six and Labour-held seats in Scotland would fall from seven to one, while the Lib Dems would stay on four.

The Scottish Greens are on 2% in the Ipsos MORI poll, with the Brexit party on less than 1%.

Based on the parties' showings in the election in 2017, the SNP have increased their vote by 7% while the Conservatives have dropped 3%, Labour are down 11% and the Lib Dems are up 4%.

The fieldwork for the survey of 1046 Scots was carried out between November 19-25, a seven-day spell which included the launch of the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem UK manifestos.

It also coincided with the first leaders' debate on ITV between Johnson and Corbyn last Tuesday, and the BBC's Question Time special on Friday featuring the two leaders as well as Sturgeon and Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson.

Ms Gray said: "It's positive news for the SNP - it has them on 44% of the vote and we know the Scottish public has a relatively favourable view of Nicola Sturgeon.

"The key issue for the party is, can they get the vote out on polling day. We know, for example, that many young voters like the SNP, so they need young people to turn out in sufficient numbers.

"The last two elections are a good indication: in 2015, when they did turn out, the SNP did very well, but in 2017 when they didn't, the SNP fell back."

Projected seats STV poll November 28 2019.

STV's special correspondent Bernard Ponsonby said the Ipsos MORI results would "put a spring in the step" of the nationalists but have other parties "gargling with gin before the witching hour".

In further good news for the SNP, the STV poll found the country split precisely down the middle on the question of independence.

48% of Scots said they would vote Yes if an independence referendum was held tomorrow, and 48% said they would vote No, with 4% not sure.

Stripping out undecided voters, the result is a 50-50 split.

But the survey suggests people in Scotland are not yet behind the First Minister's proposal for a fresh independence vote next year.

Independence support STV poll November 28 2019.

Our poll indicates only a third strongly support holding one in 2020, with another 9% saying they "tend to support" the proposition.

However, a total of 50% of Scots say they either strongly oppose (43%) or tend to oppose (7%) a plebiscite next year, as Sturgeon would wish.

Ms Gray said the result showed the independence question is currently "too close to call".

But she added: "What we are hearing from people is that more of them don't want a referendum next year than do want one."

Support for indyref2 next year STV poll November 27 2019.

Ipsos MORI polling also finds the FM is the most popular party leader north of the border, with 48% satisfied with how she is doing her job compared to 48% unsatisfied, giving her a net-zero approval rating.

By contrast, just 22% of Scots are satisfied with how Boris Johnson is doing his job, with 74% dissatisfied, meaning he has net approval of -52.

Jeremy Corbyn has the same percentage of people satisfied with his job - 22% - but has only 69% saying they are unsatisfied with him, giving him a marginally better net approval than the PM of -47.

Meanwhile, the best-performing Scottish leader besides Sturgeon, in the eyes of those surveyed, is the Lib Dems' Willie Rennie with a net approval of -7, but his UK party leader Jo Swinson is on -21.

On the overall results, STV's Bernard Ponsonby said: "This is the most up-to-date snapshot and is therefore the one that will please the SNP and depress to varying degrees the other parties.

"But remember it is only a snapshot not a firm prediction of what will happen in two weeks time.

"Politicians for all they can be dismissive of polls secretly worry about them with their ability to gnaw at the very confidence they exude at election time.

"Our poll will put a spring in the step of some and have others gargling with gin before the witching hour."

Leadership satisfaction STV poll November 28 2019.

Download: The STV News app is Scotland's favourite and is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from Google Play. Download it today and continue to enjoy STV News wherever you are.

One account. All of STV.

This field is required. That doesn't look like a valid e-mail format, please check. That e-mail's already in our system. Please try again.
Forgot password?
This field is required. This must be at least 6 characters long. Did you enter your details correctly?
If you've forgotten your details then use the 'Forgot password?' link.
Need to reset your password?

We'll send a link to reset your password to

We've sent you details on how to reset your password

Please check your email and follow the instructions.

Forgotten your email address?

Have you forgotten the email address that you previously joined with? Don't worry, by emailing enquiries@stv.tv we can help.

One account. All of STV.

This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This must be at least 6 characters long.
This field is required. This must be at least 6 characters long.
You must be over 16 to join STV.
This field is required. This doesn't appear to be a valid date
We need this to check that you live in an STV region.
This field is required. This doesn't appear to be a valid postcode
Would you like us to email you about our great shows and services from time to time?
We'll only send emails we think you'll like (see example) based on information you have supplied and shows you have watched on STV Player. For details on emails and advertising, see our STV & You page.
Would you like to receive emails from the Scottish Children's Lottery about draws, instant games and competitions?
We support the Scottish Children's Lottery (SCL), which is managed by our colleagues at STV ELM Ltd. You can find out more about the SCL on its website, including its Privacy Policy.

By continuing you agree to our Terms of Use, and understand our Privacy and Cookie Policies.

Upload Profile Picture

Please make sure your image is under 2mb in size and a valid JPG, PNG or GIF.

Are you sure?

Unfortunately, you'll be unable to access our premium content. We’ll be sorry to see you go, but if you change your mind you can rejoin us at any time.

Please verify your STV account

Please verify your STV account using the email we sent you. If you have lost the email, we can send you another one, just click the button below.


We've sent you a new verification email.
Please check your email and follow the instructions to verify your account.

Welcome to STV
Thanks for joining us.


Sorry, you must be at least 12 years old to place a vote for your Real Hero.

Please review our Voting Terms of Use for more information.


Sorry! It seems that you are using a browser that is incompatible with our voting service.

To register your vote please copy the below URL in to your regular mobile browser. We recommend Google Chrome, or Safari.



Sorry, you seem to have already voted in this category.

Thanks for voting

Now share your vote with friends on your social network

Share on twitter Share on facebook

Cast your vote

Please register or sign in to continue.

Cast your vote

This field is required. This doesn't appear to be a valid date

Cast your vote

Please fill out this form to cast your vote. As you are under 16 years old you will not create an STV account. Why do we need these details?

This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This field is required. Please enter at least 2 characters
This field is required. That doesn't look like a valid e-mail format, please check.
Location This field is required.
Parental Consent This field is required.

That's you. All that's left is to click the 'Submit Vote' button below. By doing so, you confirm that you and your parent or guardian have read and accept our Voting Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Cookie policy, and that the details you have entered are correct. We'll look after them as carefully as if they were our own.